After weeks of geopolitical overhang and macro-uncertainty, the tape spoke loudly in April: Risk is back. Based on recent price action and a marked improvement in market breadth, the market has tentatively looked beyond the war, shifting focus from a defensive stance to performance chasing.
We don’t have a crystal ball, but the message from the tape is clear. As we highlighted over the past two weeks, the period of “uncertain peace” offered the best risk-reward. While a mild pullback is possible after this strong re-rating, sentiment has improved substantially. We have even begun to see signs of FOMO in select quantum computing and nuclear names.
Indices are breaking new high
Major indices including Nasdaq, S&P and PHLX Semiconductor have reached all-time highs, marking a significant trend change from the choppy, range-bound price action seen between November 2025 and March 2026.
Four key themes
Upside momentum is no longer confined to a narrow set of AI names, but has expanded into a multi-sector ‘risk-on’ rotation.
Mag 7 Catch-up: The heavyweights are back. After a period of consolidation, the Mag 7 saw a strong rally as the market tactically sidelined concerns over capex overspending. NVDA, AAPL, MSFT, and META have reclaimed all their key moving averages (10, 20, 50, 100, and 200-day SMA), signaling a powerful trend reversal.
The Power Pivot: One of the most eye-catching shifts is the transformation of Crypto Miners. As they pivot capacity to Data Centers, they are being re-rated as AI infrastructure plays. HUT and WULF have broken out from multi-month consolidations. Combined with Nuclear/Uranium momentum (OKLO, SMR, NNE), the market is aggressively betting on the energy backbone of the AI revolution.
Silicon Photonics: Names we highlighted in early April, such as AAOI, AXTI, and AEHR, surged to all-time highs as 1.6T transmission becomes the new standard for AI clusters. Their explosive price action was predicated on a solid thematic basis, while their distinct chart patterns served as a critical technical tip-off before the move.
Widespread Breakouts: Participation is no longer “top-heavy.” We saw breakouts across multiple sectors, indicating a significant structural improvement in market participation and investor appetite.
So what the tape is saying?
- The War Discount: The rapid recovery following geopolitical headlines suggests the market is inclined to look beyond the conflict. Institutional investors are actively rebuilding exposure.
- Ride the Trend: While we remain mindful of indices approaching long-term trend line resistance, the sheer number of breakouts across various sectors provides ample actionable opportunities. The path of least resistance remains higher.
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