Read the Tape

10 April 2026

The US stock market landscape has shifted from panic to opportunistic. The SOXX (Semiconductor ETF) staged a strong come back and surged 22% from its March lows to hit a new all-time high yesterday. This dramatic rebound showcases how leading sector offers the most explosive “alpha” during a market correction.

While the Nasdaq and S&P 500 remain sensitive to April ceasefire negotiations, the price action suggests a structural bottom is in. In our view, the period of “uncertain peace” offers the best risk-reward. Establishing positions this week provides the necessary profit cushion to ride through the “reality check” volatility as terms are finalized over the coming weeks.

Leading Sectors: 1.6T AI cycle

Leading sectors are already running ahead of the general indices, pricing in a post-conflict recovery and the continued acceleration of the AI cycle.

• Silicon Photonics & Optical Interconnects: This is the “sharpest edge” of the current trade, driven by the perceived physical bottleneck in AI clusters. Companies like AXTI (+19% on 9 April) and AEHR (+9%) are surging as 1.6T transmission becomes the new standard for AI clusters.
• Memory & Storage: The demand for AI inference at the edge is driving a breakout in SNDK (SanDisk) (+9%), which was up 40%+ since end of March.
• AI Infrastructure: POWL (Powell Industries) (+6%) and UCTT (Ultra Clean) (+6%) continue to lead, suggesting the physical layer (power and sub-systems) is where the most durable alpha resides.

The “Real World” Breakout: Beverages & Logistics

Surprisingly, the rally isn’t confined to tech. We are seeing a major breakout (approaching multiple month high) in “Old Economy” giants, signaling a return of the consumer and a collapse in input costs.

• Spirit Resilience (BF.B) (+13% on 9 April): Brown-Forman is trending higher as geopolitical de-escalation revives the global travel retail theme.
• Brewing Alpha (STZ) (+9%): Constellation Brands’ strong earnings beat (+13% vs. expectations) confirms that premium consumer demand remains unshakable.
• The Return of “Coke” (COKE) (+3%): Coca-Cola Consolidated has seen a significant breakout. As a high-leverage bottler, it is the primary beneficiary of the 16% drop in oil prices, which slashes its massive logistics and PET packaging expenses.

Tape Reading at the moment

The tape is telling us the market has moved past the “fear” phase. By the time the peace is official, the best entry points will be gone.

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